Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed
Friday, February 22nd, 2008From today’s New York Times…
Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed
Prodded in part by some of the nation’s biggest banks, the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses.
Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater.
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I’ve got a few things to say about this:
Ok, I’ve been saying for YEARS that this is going to be bad. (Not that I’m such a megalomaniac as to think that it really matters, but I’m not an economist, and even I could see this coming.) Basically, there were a lot of greedy people making really ridiculous fiduciary decisions based upon what their neighbors earned from selling their condos. This, however, is an even worse turn of events. This is basically turning into the New New Deal.
Granted the administration have a little bit of wiggle room left to play with because of the stupid tax cuts for the filthy rich, but pouring more cash onto the real estate fire is not going to help.
The fact remains, there needs to be an evolution in the way the banks are monitored to keep regulate them to prevent them from having to be bailed out. (I especially love the mortgages that increase as you pay them off. WTF?!?) Perhaps, rewarding prudent money managers instead of egregious risk-taking. Minsky has some interesting points on this.
One brilliant professor at University of Florida once said, “If I lend you a thousand dollars and you can’t pay me back you’ve got a problem. If I lend you a billion dollars and you can’t pay me back, I’ve got a problem.”
Who is going to be rescued? Banks or homeowners? If people start defaulting on their mortgages… well housing prices will fall and then the MARKET and that good old invisible hand will readjust.
Where is Jeffrey Sachs? Where is the Shock Therapy?
It amaze me how we can talk out of both sides of our mouths about this. Including supporting structural readjustment overseas, but if there is a sneeze in the markets in the US the government bends over backwards to say ‘Gesundheit’.
This bailout will not work. It is, to misuse a cliche, like shutting the barn door after all the bad loans have been made.
Or maybe I should just stop flapping my lips, and watch the Dollar Lose value against the Brazilian Real and then go back and buy California.
U.S. Dollar to Brazilian Real Exchange Rate